April 2021 Outlook
Upper Kern is flowing at 365 CFS
Lower Kern is flowing at 350 CFS
Lake level is at 93,762 acre-feet
Unfortunately, a March Miracle or even March Mitigation did not materialize, so our snowpack did not grow. The official reading is based on April 1, which on average is when the snowpack is the deepest, and for Southern California that rang in at 41%.
For April I expect the Lower Kern to hang in the 400 CFS range and the Upper Kern to swing between 400 and 650 CFS.
March 2021 Outlook
Upper Kern is flowing at 217 CFS
Lower Kern is flowing at 264 CFS
Lake level is at 94,445 acre-feet
February ended up being quite dry, despite historically being the wettest month of the year for California. In some years this wouldn’t be a big deal, but in a lackluster winter such as this one, the deficit is being strongly felt. At this point, a March Miracle or mitigation will be necessary to ensure a normal length Upper Kern season. The Lower Kern is still too early to tell, but as of right now rafting on Labor Day is looking unlikely.
The outlook for March is pointing towards stormy weather but nothing significant in the ten day window. We shall see what gets delivered. March is typically the first crack at raftable flows and I do not think that will be likely this season, so I am projecting Upper Kern flows sub 300 for all of March with the Lower following suit.
February 2021 Outlook
Upper Kern is flowing at 244 CFS
Lower Kern is flowing at 314 CFS
Lake level is at 94,905 acre-feet
A large storm at the end of January dropped ~20% of April 1 snowpack in our drainage, which is quite large, but we’re still running at a season deficit. The storm was quite cold so nothing came down the Upper, which is good. The bullseyes of the storm missed us by about 50 miles, with Mammoth receiving over 10 feet of snow in a three day period. Outlook for February is uncertain with ops models showing some cut-off low storms but ensembles not in agreement yet and still showing an overall dry pattern. No flow change on Upper or Lower is expected unless a warm storm comes in, which is looking unlikely.
January 2021 Outlook
Upper Kern is flowing at 177 CFS
Lower Kern is flowing at 200 CFS
Lake level is at 96,599 acre-feet
A short hitting storm dropped some moisture around Christmas time. Looking forward no storms are on the forecast but Howard from Mammoth Weather is feeling confident of a pattern change. We shall see. Flows aren’t expected to change unless we get a winter storm.